Statistical learning for data that are incomplete, heterogeneous and dynamic

Research pillar 01

Learning under complex data conditions

Core questions

  • How does informative missingness change what can be learned from labelled and unlabelled data?
  • When can partially observed data improve inference rather than weaken it?
  • How can robust procedures remain reliable under outliers, heavy tails and distributional heterogeneity?

Methods

  • Semi-supervised learning and finite mixture models
  • Informative and favourable missingness mechanisms
  • Robust estimation, kernel methods and regularisation

Research pillar 02

Computational statistics and optimisation

Core questions

  • How can difficult high-dimensional and non-convex objectives be solved more efficiently?
  • How should hyperparameters be selected without excessive tuning or unstable validation?
  • How can iterative and stochastic algorithms balance speed, accuracy and robustness?

Methods

  • Iterative and stochastic optimisation
  • Evolutionary and swarm-based algorithms
  • Automatic hyperparameter selection and scalable computation

Research pillar 03

Forecasting, uncertainty and causal dynamics

Core questions

  • How can deterministic and probabilistic forecasts remain calibrated under changing regimes?
  • How can physical knowledge be combined with statistical and machine-learning models?
  • How can interventions and causal mechanisms be studied in dynamic systems?

Applications

  • Power systems, electricity demand and integrated energy systems
  • Marine, hydrological, groundwater and air-quality forecasting
  • Environmental, geoscience and socio-economic systems

Current directions

Research priorities

Current work extends these themes into trustworthy AI, physics-informed learning and uncertainty-aware prediction.

A

Informative missingness in semi-supervised inference

Understanding when the mechanism that determines what is observed carries information that should be modelled directly.

B

Physics-informed learning with imperfect constraints

Combining governing structure with noisy, incomplete or large-scale observations in environmental and engineering systems.

C

Probabilistic forecasting for interconnected systems

Developing models that quantify uncertainty across energy, groundwater, climate and environmental applications.

D

Trustworthy and responsible scientific AI

Examining robustness, transparency and responsible deployment of AI in geoscience and other scientific domains.

Research collaboration

Methodological depth, interdisciplinary reach

I am particularly interested in collaborations where statistical structure, computational difficulty and domain knowledge must be addressed together.